A sharp rise is inflation is inevitable as a result of the fuel crisis driven by the conflict in Iran and the wider Middle East, warns hospitality purchasing specialist Lynx Purchasing.
“The upcoming spike in inflation is like an oncoming storm,” says Lynx Purchasing managing director Rachel Dobson. “It’s clearly visible on the horizon and is getting closer all the time, but no one can say exactly when it’s going to hit.
“The Bank of England is predicting a peak in inflation later this year and running into 2027, but that still leaves hard-pressed hospitality operators with a high level of uncertainty as they plan menus across the summer and beyond,”
The warning comes as Lynx Purchasing publishes the Summer 2026 edition of its regular Market Forecast. The report uses exclusive insight from the range of suppliers that Lynx works with, as well as official inflation data, to look at food and drink pricing across the coming months.
The Forecast flags up the escalating challenges facing the hospitality supply chain as fuel prices increase and global distribution is disrupted by the conflict. “For suppliers and wholesalers, the immediate challenge is how to mitigate transport costs without imposing sharp price increases on their hospitality customers.
“While some have added a delivery charge or fuel surcharge, others have reduced the number of days they deliver, particularly earlier in the week when demand is lower. Other tactics include offering fewer delivery slots each day, and increasing the required minimum spend per order. The challenge will grow as product costs start to increase alongside fuel.”
Specific product areas highlighted in the latest Market Forecast include:
- Meat: Prices for British beef remain very high, making British beef a premium menu option. Although the peak spring season for English lamb has passed, prices have also stayed high. Pork prices are currently quite stable, making pork a more reliable option when menu planning.
- Fish: The sharp increase in fuel prices has seen many fishing vessels in Britain, Europe and beyond either reduce time at sea, or stay in port, The effects of this will increase as frozen supplies run down and demand pushes prices up. Staying flexible in terms of fish species used will help make the most of changing availability.
- Oil: Although edible oils are in relatively good supply, demand from the biofuel industry means pricing is linked to the volatility of fuel prices. Combined with rising transport and packaging costs, this means oil price inflation seems inevitable as global uncertainty continues. This affects a wide range of food products that use vegetable oil.
Dobson adds: “The better news is that as we move into summer, more high-quality British produce becomes available, enabling operators to plan menus around seasonal dishes.
“The weather has been relatively kind to British farmers and producers, so buying produce from closer to home should be better value than imported food and drink. However, nowhere is immune to the impact of higher fuel costs on production and distribution.
“Operators will need to be more organised when it comes to planning and placing orders. Improved buying discipline is always good practice, supports sustainability, and is one way that hospitality businesses can make an impact on the bottom line despite global pressures.
“More than ever, working with suppliers to make the most of produce when it’s at its best in terms of quality and value, will help mitigate the inevitable impact of higher distribution costs combined with inflationary pressures.”
A free copy of the Summer 2026 edition of the Lynx Purchasing can be downloaded from the website at www.lynxpurchasing.co.uk. A free guide, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective Purchasing Teams, is also available on the site.
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About Lynx Purchasing
Lynx Purchasing is one of the UK’s leading independent purchasing companies, specialising in the hospitality, leisure, education, and care home sectors. It manages almost 2,500 accounts, helping operators and organisations buy better, get better prices, and save time and money every day. Lynx Purchasing delivers a bespoke purchasing service that focuses on value, as well as quality and price. Its suppliers are industry leaders across all categories with whom Lynx Purchasing has strong relationships built over many years.
Issued on behalf of: Lynx Purchasing
By: ShielPorter Communications
Further information: John Porter: john@shielporter.com / 07734 054389
Ros Shiel: ros@shielporter.com / 07841 694137